Is South Sudan Heading for War With Sudan?
Many Sudan observers think it is likely, but I would suggest that after more than three decades, the civil war between the north and south has never really ended.
Hostilities between the predominantly Christian south and Muslim north subsided a bit during the six year period between the signing of a comprehensive peace agreement in January 2005 and South Sudan independence last July.
Still, this war continues. It is unlikely to end until an agreement on borders and the sharing of oil resources is finalized.
Just this week, violence flared up again and South Sudan seized the oil-rich Heglig area of Sudan’s Unity State. South Sudan has claimed the territory as its own and used Sudan’s recent bombing of Heglig as an opportunity to move its troops in to occupy the disputed area.
Seven civilians were killed when a Sudan Antonov aircraft dropped bombs on Mayom town, Unity State on Sunday, April 15. Fourteen people were injured. It was just another in a series of Sudan bombing raids against the people of the disputed north-south border area.
All of this is really about oil—at least $4 billion worth in annual oil revenues.
Most of the oil is now in the newly independent South Sudan (the world’s newest nation), but it needs Sudan’s oil pipeline to transport South Sudan oil to the Red Sea and out to world markets. The problem is Sudan was not sharing the revenues from the transported oil so, South Sudan shut off the oil.
Sudan has now labeled South Sudan an enemy state even though at this point, the two countries need each other for their mutual economic survival. It appears South Sudan’s occupation of Heglig will give it more bargaining power and leverage when negotiations between the two countries eventually resume—possibly again in Addis Ababa--at the urging of the African Union.
In the meantime, more Sudan bombings are likely and more innocent South Sudanese, women and children like those in this video, are likely to die.
Details of the Mayom bombing are given by Nicolas Von Ruben, the director of Missions support for UNMISS.