North Korea: What Now?

06-26-2008

North Korea is apparently "coming clean" about it's nuclear program after years of false starts and mind games (and nuclear tests). Some initial questions:

1. Why would the North Korean regime come clean now? Obviously, its people are starving and they want those U.S. sanctions lifted. So on one hand, this is all about economic desperation. Another possible reason is that North Korea could be sending out positive signals to the incoming U.S. president, whether it be Barack Obama or John McCain. Perhaps it's all just a clever feint by the North Koreans, just like in 1994 with the Clinton administration--they'll butter up Obama or McCain in public  in an attempt to get off to the right foot with a new administration (particularly with Obama, who's inexperienced in foreign policy and has expressed a willingness to talk directly to rogue regimes). But behind the scenes, the North Koreans will continue with their nuclear weapons hijinks. It's possible. 

2. Now that it looks as if North Korea will be coming off the list of state sponsors of terrorism, will the regime cease and desist from providing other state sponsors, like Syria and Iran, with military and nuclear technology? And will the North Koreans be forthcoming about their involvement with the illicit A.Q. Khan nuclear black market?

3. What is the Bush administration thinking about? It looks like this may be about legacy. The President--who's been called a warmonger by his opponents--can point to this as a diplomatic success. A non-nuclear North Korea, along with a non-nuclear Libya (also achieved through diplomacy) would certainly bolster Bush's place in history.

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