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Could War in Israel Cost Biden the 2024 Election?

04-08-2024
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Joe Biden

Navigating how he handles the war in Israel is getting tougher for President Joe Biden, not only as president but also in his quest to win re-election. 

A consistent outcry by his progressive wing is getting louder and larger, referring to the President as "Genocide Joe," based on their interpretation of the war in Gaza. 

They want action to be taken against Israel, following the recent tragedy involving aid workers. 

The Biden administration took a stronger tone, calling on Israel to take concrete steps to end the humanitarian suffering, or else. 

"If there's no changes to their policy and their approaches then there's going to have to be changes to ours," National Security Communications Adviser John Kirby said.

The question of how far those changes go is key because Biden is trailing in the polls. A drastic shift against Israel could further fracture the Democrat's base, putting key swing states at risk in November. 

The number of Democrats choosing "uncommitted" over Biden in key swing state primaries has been jarring. 

 It began in February with Michigan at roughly 13%, then almost 19% in Minnesota and 8% in Wisconsin.

Rick Klein, Political Director for ABC News, is paying close attention. 

"Michigan is a little less close than some of the other battleground states 150,000 votes or so. But more than 100,000 people voted uncommitted in the primary, so if a big chunk of them decide to stay home or vote Donald Trump, then you start to see a real difference," Klein said, adding Biden can't become President if he doesn't win Michigan. 

Pennsylvania has the country's fourth-largest Jewish population. 

Middle East analyst Jake Novak is watching the "Keystone State." 

"If there's any state in the country where the Jewish vote actually means something. It's Pennsylvania," Novak said. 

Since it has about 3% of the voting population, Biden will need to perform a political tap dance between progressives and Jewish Democrats in Pennsylvania and similar states. 
 

"The biggest problem is that he's trying to dance at two weddings. That's an old Yiddish phrase. And you can't do that," Novak said. 

Donald Trump is weighing in on the Republican side. 

As president, he took a strong pro-Israel stance, although recent comments about quickly ending the war have raised some eyebrows among his supporters. 

"What I said very plainly is get it over with, and let's get back to peace and stop killing people," Trump said recently during an interview on the Hugh Hewitt Show.

"Israel is absolutely losing the PR war," he added. 
 
Klein says Trump has a reputation for being strong on Israel, but comments like these have made some people question if that's an ongoing commitment. But even with his isolationist views, there's little thought that Trump would push too far against the Jewish state.

"My expectation is you're not going to hear a lot of public criticism from Trump toward Netanyahu. There's no real upside in that," Klein said.

"At the end of the day, Israel and Jewish people and Christians who support Israel know that Donald Trump has Israel's back," Novak agreed.

Some people aren't so confident that progressive Democrats will have Biden's back. Analysts say it's very likely to be a very close election and any number of issues could be the difference maker.

"It's very easy to see a scenario where this is a defining issue and when the history of the 2024 election has written that this is among the factors that determine its outcome," Klein said.
 

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