Olmert's Resignation: What Does it Mean?

09-22-2008

Sunday night, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert took the short drive from his home here in Jerusalem to the residence of Israeli President Shimon Peres.

Olmert officially resigned after months of criminal and civil investigations into his private affairs. Now what?

First of all, it's expected that on Monday evening Peres will appoint Tzipi Livni, the newly elected head of Kadima, to form a new coalition government. She'll have 42 days to do it.

Since many of the Jewish holidays come in October and are not included in those 42 days, she'll have until November 14 to form a government.

If she can't get a coalition together, then Israel will go to national elections 90 days later.

Forming a government in Israel is all about math. If you can add up enough seats -- in this case 61 -- then you can form a government.

Right now, the math might be difficult for Livni but not insurmountable.

She took a big step toward forming that government when she met with Labor leader Ehud Barak Sunday night. Many see Barak as the key to Livni forming a coalition.

According to reports, she offered him a "real partnership." If Labor and its 19 seats stay with Livni and Kadima's 29 seats, she may be able to cobble together a coalition.

Livni would like to get a government in place before October 27, when the Knesset comes back from its summer recess.

As one former Israeli diplomat told us, Livni faces a difficult puzzle. Can she face down challenges with some members of her own Kadima party who feel she embarrassed her challenger Shaul Mofaz? Can she get the ultra-Orthodox Shas party to join her coalition?

The diplomat we spoke with thinks the odds are against her. Politically no one really knows how this will play out, but the next several weeks will tell that story.

Where Does Bibi Stand?

We talked to a senior Likud member early this morning who said they're doing what they can to convince other political parties to stay out of Livni's coalition and force new elections.

Whether they can succeed is not yet clear. Many of the people they're trying to convince will likely not be elected if new elections are held. So the self-interest of many of these lawmakers rests with maintaining the political status quo.

But if Israel does go to new elections, it's likely that Likud and its leader, Binyamin (Bibi) Netanyahu, will be the next ruling party and prime minister.

Ever since the 2006 Second Lebanon War, former Prime Minister Netanyahu has led in national polls.

The most recent poll has Likud leading Kadima by 29 to 25 seats.

Iran in the Rear View Mirror

In the meantime, the threat of Iran is growing.

Just over a week ago, Britain's Daily Telegraph reported that "nuclear experts responsible for monitoring Iran's nuclear programme have discovered that enough enriched uranium (50 - 60 tons), which if processed to weapons-grade level could be used to make up to six atom bombs, has disappeared from the main production facility at Isfahan." (Daily Telegraph, 9-12-08)

On Sunday, Israel's head of Military Intelligence Research warned that Iran's centrifuges have one-third to one-half enriched uranium material to build a bomb. He said, "The time when they will have crossed the nuclear point of no return is fast approaching." (The Jerusalem Post, 9-22-08)

Caroline Glick in her Jerusalem Post column last week also noted, "...Iran has taken steps to enable its Shihab-3 ballistic missiles to carry nuclear warheads. With their range of 1,300 kilometers [approximately 800 miles], Shihab-3 missiles are capable of reaching Israel and other countries throughout the region." (The Jerusalem Post, 9-18-08)

Given this ever-increasing menace to the Jewish nation, it's crucial that Israel's ship of state get the kind of godly leadership it needs in these perilous times.

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