PHOENIX, AZ – As the 2024 election season heats up, Arizona has again emerged as a key battleground state, with significant concerns about growing divisions within the Republican Party that could jeopardize its prospects in both state and national races.
Despite Donald Trump narrowly losing Arizona in 2020, his influence remains strong. A local supporter insists, "Trump may not be a perfect man, but he's a good leader."
This sentiment resonates particularly in places like Show Low, home to The Trumped Store. "Here in Arizona, they still have a lot of McCain knights that are grasping onto the power. So, we got all the MAGA people constantly fighting them," said owner Steve Slaton.
Concerns about party unity are heightened as key races unfold. "If we have a candidate that just wavers off here and there, they're called woke RINOs. We don't support them at all," says Karen Slaton, echoing the urgency among MAGA supporters.
With the balance of power in the U.S. Senate at stake, the choice of candidates like Trump ally Kari Lake and Democrat Ruben Gallego could significantly influence voter sentiment and turnout. "Kari Lake told the McCain Republicans to get out of the party," indicating the challenge Republicans face in unifying their base, said Paul Bentz of Highground Inc.
Former Senate candidate Sheriff Mark Lamb lost to Lake in the primary contest in July. "One of my goals was to really try to bring the party together and not do anything that would create more division," he said.
The rift is particularly pronounced in Maricopa County, which played a crucial role in President Biden's narrow victory in 2020. Jan Brewer, the former governor, emphasizes the importance of moderate voters, saying, "They are the people who are going to decide who wins these elections."
As the GOP grapples with its identity, internal divisions and external pressures, including a growing segment of independent voters, pose significant challenges. A recent survey reveals that 80% of independents feel unrepresented by either major party. "If I was partisan and I was part of the party, I would be very alarmed," warns Dr. Thom Reilly, a professor in the School of Public Affairs at Arizona State University.
Moreover, the state's two million evangelical Christians are another critical factor, with many expected to abstain from voting due to dissatisfaction with candidates and many churches shying away from political issues. Dr. George Barna of Arizona Christian University says that the faithful are largely not getting guidance from the pulpit, "Right now, they don't know how to choose candidates."
Despite these challenges, analysts believe a path to victory exists if Arizona Republicans can unite moderates, independents, and their core supporters. "I really think that people should question why they are Republican. Is it about the message or is it about the messenger?" said Gina Swoboda Chair of the Arizona GOP.
The stakes are high for the GOP in Arizona, as party dynamics not only influence local outcomes but also shape the national political landscape.
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