SAGINAW, Michigan – If residents in Michigan ever questioned their significance in American presidential politics, the 2024 campaign should put any doubt to rest.
As the election winds down, the candidates and their running mates have made frequent stops in the Rust Belt state, with multiple visits to Saginaw County which sits about 100 miles northwest of Detroit.
Vice President Kamala Harris campaigned there Monday with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz at their first joint appearance in the final week before Election Day. On Saturday, Harris was farther downstate in Kalamazoo at a rally with former First Lady Michelle Obama.
Former President Donald Trump hit the state with two events over the weekend and a prior visit to Saginaw Valley State University in early October.
With fewer than 190,000 residents, the county could play an outsized role on November 5.
"Anybody worth their weight is going to look at Saginaw County and go, 'This is an important swing county,'" noted Stewart French, who has taught political science at Saginaw Valley State since 2005. "And it's going to be close."
All of Michigan's characteristically swing counties stayed in the Trump column from 2016 to 2020 except for one. Saginaw was the lone county that flipped for Joe Biden. Both parties have been spending a lot of time and money trying to win it again in 2024.
"I don't know about all of Michigan, but Trump will win Saginaw County like he did in 2016," declared Gary Ell, the chairman of the Saginaw County Republican Party.
A former Obama supporter turned Trump acolyte, Ell's bold prediction is based on record donations, increased volunteers, and cross-over voters traditionally aligned with Democrats.
"Here we are in the 2024 campaign, I got 'UAW for Trump' t-shirts. I have 'UAW for Trump' signs," he explained, contrasting support among union members for the former president from 2016 to 2020. "I have 'Union Workers for Trump,' not because of us. It's because of people that work in those organizations are saying, 'I am tired of being silent. I don't care what my bosses say.'"
But it's not just unions.
Democrats face a mass defection from Michigan's large Arab population over the war in Gaza. That concern was heightened recently after the Muslim mayor of Hamtramck, a Detroit suburb, endorsed Trump's third White House run.
Democrats are concerned but remain hopeful, making the case that future White House policies under a Harris administration would be more agreeable than one by a second Trump White House.
"I understand the Arab {vote} but my argument is how would it be under Trump? It would be worse," said Aileen Pettinger, chair of the Saginaw County Democratic Party. "It would be so much worse."
Pettinger, a retired firefighter turned political party chairwoman, told CBN News she and other Democrats remain hopeful because of the crossover support they're seeing from non-traditional voters.
"My optimism says that with Republicans and independents, so many coming over, I'm hoping that will help if there's any gap with Union or the Arab population," she explained.
Political science Professor Stewart French believes the final tally will reflect a tight race again due to the issues residents here face — like declines in manufacturing and population.
"Saginaw County is older than the average age of Michigan. It's poorer than the average income of the rest of the state. So we usually are on the bad side of whatever statistic there is for the state," French said, describing why he believes the county is up-for-grabs again this year.
While pundits and pollsters predict the race here will be close, both county party leaders told CBN News they suspect their side might surprise everyone with a blowout – hoping Saginaw will not only be a bellwether for the state but the nation as well.
"I think there's going to be an underground movement, a blue tsunami, that people are going to be blindsided with," Pettinger said. "Women are going to help win the election."
"This thought that it's relatively close – you know, 50/50 – the silent majority is still silent when it polls, but we'll see how they do when they go to the voting booth," Ell said.
CBN News spoke with Saginaw County voters on the first day of statewide early voting, which also includes an open U.S. Senate race between Democrat Elissa Slotkin and Republican Mike Rogers, which will factor into the chamber's balance of power.
Across the ideological spectrum, we found a shared concern about the integrity of the vote.
"We usually do absentee, but I wanted to make sure it counted," said Jim Dwyer, a retired educator.
Jordan Williams, of Saginaw City, shared a similar concern.
"I just wanted to make sure my ballot got casted," Williams said, who voted for Trump, explaining weekend early voting was convenient with his work schedule. "Trump displays peace through strength. I like his policies," he added.
Some, like Regina Mallett of Saginaw, politely declined to share for whom they voted. "I know who I'm voting for, and I want to make sure that person does get elected," Mallett explained. "I want to make sure my voice is heard."
Others held their nose.
"I'm not excited about either choice, but like I said, you have to look at where your positions are and look at the broad view," said Jennifer Neitzke, of nearby Merrill, who accompanied her niece who was voting for the first time.
Among single-issue voter concerns, voters expressed that they were worried about the direction of the country, democracy, and women's rights.
Ernest Dugan and his wife, Peggy, of Freeland, expressed hope regardless of the outcome. "Even if Donald Trump did lose, our foundation is on Jesus," he explained. "That's the solid rock that we stand on."
As we were leaving the polling site, we witnessed a moment that defies the bitter division of this campaign cycle: perfect strangers prioritizing the needs of others even before casting their ballot.
"She was limping and in pain. So we're all team Jesus," explained Maria Hall, who from a distance appeared to be tying Pamela Nadzan's shoe. However, Hall was kneeling to place her hands around Nadzan's sprained ankle in prayer. The two had never met.
"I was out today campaigning, and I fell and hurt myself," Nadzan chimed in. "When they offered, I thought, 'Yeah, I'll take prayer.'"
For Nadzan, the encounter served as a reminder of God's compassion for people. "He's everywhere. And he's for us, and he loves us. And he cares about our healing," Nadzan reflected.
"Even at an election polling site?" asked CBN's John Jessup.
"Especially," Williams responded.
"He never stops working," Williams' husband, Jerome, added. "It never stops working. The thing is who is it really all about at the end? Who has the last say in all things?"
Their selfless act serves as an example of turning faith into action and putting people before politics.
NOTE: CBN neither supports nor opposes any political party or candidate. Our goal is to cover the news because truth matters. Please join with us in prayer for God to use CBN News to share the truth from a Christian perspective.
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