If Hillary Clinton wins big among White Catholics, she could win Tuesday’s Pennsylvania primary by double digits. This primary is a big deal for Hillary. She really needs a big win to show that she has the momentum. A double digit win will give her more credibility when she tries to make the case to super delegates that Barack Obama’s “bitter” and “cling to religion and guns” comments were a big time blunder and that he does not have what it takes to win in a key battleground state.
The folks over at the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life have some insight on winning the Catholic vote in Pennsylvania. Read below from John Green, Senior Fellow in Religion and American Politics.
White Catholics have been a pillar of Clinton’s voter coalition in her big-state victories to date. For example, in the Ohio primary, she received 65% of the white Catholic vote en route to a 10-percentage-point victory overall over Obama. The current state polls suggest that Clinton enjoys a huge lead among white Catholics, and that is likely one of the reasons she has been consistently ahead.
Obama will certainly want to improve his following among white Catholics. He is trying to expand his support among younger and more affluent Catholics, who have backed him in other states, to include older and blue-collar Catholics who have tended to support Clinton. Something like this happened in two large, industrial states where Obama won. In Missouri, Clinton had a small 50%-to-46% advantage among white Catholics, and in Wisconsin Obama edged Clinton 50% to 49% with this group.
Obama can likely count on other important religious constituencies in Pennsylvania, particularly black Protestants and religiously unaffiliated voters, two groups that strongly backed him in previous states. But these religious groups are not likely to be a large enough part of the Pennsylvania vote for him to prevail with their votes alone.
The whole article is here.