Could Obama Get 40% of the Evangelical Vote?

06-06-2008

The Brody File’s good friend, Dan Gilgoff over at Beliefnet.com has a great interview with Evangelical Public Relations Executive Mark DeMoss. DeMoss has a good read on the climate among Evangelicals. He’s well respected. He believes Barack Obama could get up to 40 percent of the Evangelical vote this November. Read below and then get my take.

Gilgoff: Barack Obama is trying hard to win evangelical voters. Does that effort stand a chance?

DeMoss: If one third of white evangelicals voted for Bill Clinton the second time, at the height of Monica Lewinsky mess—that’s a statistic I didn’t believe at first but I double and triple checked it—I would not be surprised if that many or more voted for Barack Obama in this election. You’re seeing some movement among evangelicals as the term [evangelical] has become more pejorative. There’s a reaction among some evangelicals to swing out to the left in an effort to prove that evangelicals are really not that right wing. There’s some concern that maybe Republicans haven’t done that well. And there’s this fascination with Barack Obama. So I will not be surprised if he gets one third of the evangelical vote. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was 40-percent.

Gilgoff: How much of that is because of the testimonial way he discusses his own faith?

DeMoss:Out of curiosity, I’ve been reading up on Obama’s personal faith these last couple weeks. I read all of Dreams From My Father and I got Audacity of Hope and so far I only read the chapter on faith. The chapter on faith in Audacity of Hope actually talked relatively little about his personal faith or his relationship with Christ. I underlined even the remotest references and there might be six or eight sentences at most. For example, he talks about joining Trinity and being baptized there. But for evangelicals, there’s a difference between being baptized—it’s not eh same as acknowledging a decision to accept Christ. He says in other places that he accepted Christ as his savior and I accept that, but if you read [Obama’s books] You’re not going to find the kind of personal testimony in the kind of terms that Mike Huckabee talked about. I’m not saying he has to be a born again or he shouldn’t be president. But he’s going to appeal to a lot of [evangelicals] and raise questions in others. I learned recently of a young woman form a prominent evangelical family who’d been supporting a Republican candidate in the primaries and she stood for four hours in a stadium in a downpour waiting for Obama to speak and signed up to work for him afterward. That’s all it took. It speaks to what we’re hearing about him being a mesmerizing communicator. There will be others who ask tough questions [about Obama] and say “I’m not so sure.” But one of the things that the media had gotten really wrong in recent years that evangelicals are absolutely Republican. Polls don’t show that to be true.

More here.

Look, let me give it to you straight. John McCain doesn’t like talking about his faith in public. Obama doesn’t mind at all. That leaves an impression with Evangelicals who are told to tell others about your faith in Christ.

McCain is taking a lot of grief behind the scenes among Evangelical activists who believe he should be more forthcoming about his faith. They want him to share stories and open up a little. Don’t hold your breath. That’s just not him. But that leaves the door open for Obama to have a discussion with Evangelicals.
OK. OK. I know there are those of you who think he’s not a Christian because he doesn’t come right out and say Jesus is the only way to heaven. He has a more complicated answer and for Evangelicals the answer isn’t complicated. I get that. You won’t vote for him.
But remember, he’s broadening the political landscape by taking about his faith and how that relates to his policy positions on climate change, poverty, healthcare, etc. That appeals to a younger audience. I understand you have a conflict on the abortion issue but think about this for a moment. If he combines an increase in young Evangelical turnout with African-American Evangelicals as well as Church goers who like that he’s not afraid to mention the name of Jesus in public that spikes his numbers. If John McCain doesn’t engage on the faith topic, then he’s giving up fertile ground to Obama.

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