Could Tibet Be the Next Tiananmen?
March 10 is rarely a day that goes unnoticed in Tibet. As the annual anniversary of the Dalai Lama was sent into exile, Tibetan activists and sympathizers will generally stage a protest of some sort, which results in some minor headlines, but generally no permanent damage.
This year, however, things might not be as simple.
The 600 monks who gathered outside Lhasa's most holy site for Tibetan Buddhists started their protests March 10, but 5 days later, they haven't fizzled out in a way the Chinese authorities would hope. They've actually become increasingly explosive.
The initially peaceful protests have devolved, resulting in witnesses reporting burned stores and vehicles. Gunshots have been heard throughout the city, and the U.S. Embassy in Beijing has advised citizens to stay away from Lhasa due to several reports of "gunfire and other indications of violence."
Two deaths have been reported, though many estimate that the death toll could be significantly higher. Many monks began a hunger strike on Thursday with no forseeable end in sight.
Political conflicts surrounding the Tibetan protests aren't confined to China. Across the border in India, authorities detained about 100 exiled Tibetans who wanted to cross the border into Tibet. Though the protesters were peaceful and non-violent, as you can see from the video, the response from Indian authorities was very deliberate.
For India, jeopardizing a solid political relationship with China would be more detrimental than arresting protesters. With the intense scrutiny on China's human rights record, however, it doesn't have the same luxury.
There's not really a way the Beijing government can win the media war for this event. If it uses excessive force to end the protests immediately, it's painted by the world as oppressive and brutal.
While we still don't know what the damage has been for the event, if the Chinese government uses excessive force, resulting in a few murdered monks, it's a public relations nightmare. This type of event would be the exact opposite impression of the way that China wants ot portray itself before the Olympics.
On the other hand, if they ignore the protests, and let them go their natural course, the end result could be much worse. Even though it's officially one big, happy, harmonious China, many Tibetans still resent the Communist Party invasion of their autonomonous region in 1950. That's almost 60 years of growing anger!
Imagine what decades of pent-up resentment would look like. There's extraordinary potential for damage.
Another third option, which remains highly unlikely, would be for China to reach an agreement with the Dalai Lama. While that would make many human rights activists feel as warm and fuzzy as one of those heart-warming Olympic athlete bios, the Chinese government would never agree to that.
China's leaders want their nation to appear strong and powerful, and with the Olympics approaching, there's a heightened sense of improving national security. Acquiescing to Tibetan separatists could potentially open Pandora's Box for multiple dissident groups to have their say.
Much to the chagrin of China, however, efforts to silence protests are becoming increasingly difficult. Dissidents are getting louder, wounding its reputation at a time when it is the most vulnerable.