U.S. State Department Issues Mexico Travel Warning

The attack on two agents of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement division of US Homeland Security in Mexico on February 17th has resulted in a warning by the U.S. embassy in Mexico city for the central state of San Luis Potosi and surrounding areas.

A new report from the University of San Diego sheds more light on the subject: Of the more than 15,600 drug-related killings that took place in 2010 in Mexico, more than 80 percent of them occurred in only four of the country's 32 states, all in the northern part of the country near the U.S.-Mexico border. In fact, the majority of the deaths happened in only five cities - Juarez, Chihuahua, Tijuana, Culiacan and Acapulco.

Despite the attack on the ICE agents last week which took the life of 32-year-old agent Jaime Zapata, the vast majority of the murders in Mexico are due to the various cartels killing each other or fighting with the police and military. As long as you aren't caught in the crossfire or happen to be perceived as a threat to the cartels, you are probably quite safe most places in Mexico.

But perception is a powerful thing, and the continued violence has caused a sharp decline in the Mexican tourism industry - which is making life difficult for millions of this country's citizens who rely on tourist dollars to survive.

On my recent trip to Mazatlan - another resort town on the Mexican riviera north of Acapulco, street vendors and taxi drivers are almost frantic in their pursuit of the tourists who are in town. Most of those are from Canada, which probably has to do with the -40 temperatures up there (what's the threat of a few stray bullets compared to that?).

I went to get my hair cut on Saturday in the resort community where we are living in San Carlos, Mexico. The shop was empty, and when I walked in the stylist was in tears. I asked what was wrong, and she replied simply, "there is no business."

It's a scene that is playing out across the country, even in areas that are relatively safe, because Gringo dollars typically make up about ten percent of Mexico's economy. But considering that the illicit drug trade may also comprise about ten percent of Mexico's economy, they are now in a situation where two sectors are in direct opposition to one another.

For this reason, more than one Mexican I spoke to expressed the wish that Calderon would simply back off the drug war and leave the criminals alone so things could return to the way they used to be - corrupt but stable.

Hopefully those in power can learn the lessons of history - that appeasment has never proven to be a smart move long term.