Fun With Numbers

No one can deny that Narcotics cause a large share of the world's problems. From the opium that spreads like cancer from Afghanistan around the globe, to the Marijuana grown in the highlands of Mexico, America leads the world in the fight against global narco-insurgencies.

Unfortunately, America is also responsible for much of the demand for illegal narcotics. In this way, we are sort of funding both sides of the war - the surest way to make a war impossible to win.

In recent years, it has been fashionable in Mexico to blame the drug wars on American guns flooding south across the border. Two years ago, President Obama jumped on the bandwagon himself, stating in a press conference:

"A demand for these drugs in the United States is what is helping to keep these cartels in business. This war is being waged with guns purchased not here, but in the United States. More than 90 percent of the guns recovered in Mexico come from the United States, many from gun shops that line our shared border."

The only problem is, it isn't true. Not by a long shot. Here are the real statistics from a GAO report from the same time period:

In raids on drug cartels in 2008, some 30,000 guns were seized by Mexican authorities. Data from just 24 percent of those guns was submitted to the U.S. for help with tracing. Of that 24 percent, less than 3,500 guns were shown to come from the United States. This amounts to only about 12 percent, not 90 percent as quoted by Obama and many others.

From there, one must understand the nature of illegal arms. Many of them do not come from the black market, but are legally purchased by the host country (in this case, Mexico) for use by their police and armed forces.

Unfortunately, many of these soldiers and police go AWOL, taking their weapons with them. These guns which started in the "white market" make up a sizeable percentage of the 12 percent above.This gun/drug bust in 2008 netted over 500 weapons, including "gold encrusted weapon" and a rocket launcher. The gun runner was a deserter from the Mexican army.

So where do the rest of the guns come from? An AK-47 can be had on the foreign market for about $100. Thousands of tons of weapons were shipped to central and South America during the cold war by the U.S. and Russia. Many of those are still around. Even guns that were left in Vietnam when the United States pulled out in the 1970s sometimes show up in Mexico - making their way via the black market.

The bottom line is this: Blaming the U.S. for Mexico's drug wars is like blaming AT&T for the fact that your mother-in-law keeps calling. It might be a tempting target upon which to direct your frustration, but it will not fix the problem.

What Mexico should do is overhaul their laws to include the right to bear arms. See, right now it is illegal for Mexican citizens to own a handgun for personal protection, and very difficult and expensive to own a long gun.

So Mexico, how's that working out for you?