'Twas The Night Before The Iowa Caucuses
The Brody File’s take on the night before the Iowa Caucuses:
'Twas the night before the Iowa Caucuses, when all through the state,
Not a Huntsman was stirring, not even an ounce;
The drapes were being measured by Romney with care,
In hopes that Santorum would not give him a scare;
The voters were nestled all snug in their warm overcoats,
While visions of Hawaii danced in their heads
All right enough with that. On to the analysis:
Mitt Romney looks confident and the crowds here in Iowa are huge. Romney is a much better campaigner in 2012 than in 2008. While all the other candidates get scrutinized and become flavors of the month, Romney stays steady. He may be vanilla but you know what? People like vanilla. They may not love it but it’s still pretty good.
A top three finish by Santorum is a win and he’s poised to get it. Everywhere we went to today the crowds were pumped. I’ve covered Santorum from the very beginning and he’s gotten better and better with his stump speech as time has gone on. If he pulls a victory or a top three finish, he’ll have to decide how much time to spend in New Hampshire. Every day he’s in New Hampshire is one less day in vital South Carolina.
Speaking of South Carolina, that’s where Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry are headed…at least for now. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Perry get out of the race after Iowa if he polls poorly. He’s shaping up to be the Fred Thompson of 2012.
As for Bachmann, if she pulls a top three finish in Iowa, she’s off to the races. If not, she needs to hope Rick Perry does really bad and drops out. She can then try and get some of that support. It’s her best chance at victory.
Ron Paul is the wildcard. If he wins, all bets are off as to what happens next with him and the other candidates. I can tell you this: The Bachmann and Santorum campaigns would love to see Ron Paul win over Romney to keep the Baystater from running away with the nomination.
As for Newt, it’s hard to figure out. Don’t count him out. He may be sliding in the polls but there’s plenty of undecided voters out there and he has been exciting audiences here for months. Maybe top three? Hard to see with all the negative ads run against him but not out of the realm of possibility. Still, it could be a fourth place finish.