The Flagpole Theory
I've just returned from a month-long trip to Afghanistan, and I'm sad to say that for the first time, I'm less optimistic about the situation there than I was before the embed.
There are several reasons, which I'll cover more in detail in subsequent posts, but here is a short list of WHY I'm a little more jaded this time about our chances of pulling off a win in the Hindu Kush.
1. Troop morale has declined since my last trip six months ago. This is because the majority of the troops I spoke with feel terribly under-utilized. Many who arrived as part of the "surge" of 20,000 extra troops have yet to leave the wire on a combat mission. And they feel like meat-eaters who have been put on a steady diet of cabbage.
2. Red tape is at an all-time high. I have a theory, borne of many years of active duty, that says that the closer to the flagpole one gets, the more difficult and time-consuming everything becomes. Well, let's just say that there are more flagpoles being erected in Afghanistan every day.
3. The focus is too much on safety, too little on success. When the war started we had special operators riding into battle on horseback because that's what it took to get the job done. Now, that same operator would have to wear a reflective vest, a helmet, and keep the horse under the base-wide speed limit of 25 mph or risk getting a ticket.
Safety is a good thing, sure, but winning a war sometimes requires "big boy rules." What I experienced this trip to Afghanistan was a kind of "institutional timidity" whereby it was abundantly clear that few of those in charge were willing to approve missions because, you know, someone could get hurt.
The exception to the above were the Marines in Helmand province. They are still doing missions regularly and are very focused on getting the job done. But even they are feeling pressure from above to "reign it in some".
I'm typically an optimistic fellow. And I believe that, if we allow our soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines to do what they do best - close with and defeat the enemy - we can win this war. Right now, that is not a sure thing, and the odds don't look as promising as they did six months ago. But rest assured, if this war is lost, it will be lost in the halls of power in Washington, not by the men on the ground.
More to come.